Europe felt a moment of respite on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the announcement of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – briefly – to have been stabilised. A senior US official spoke of "significant advancement" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Russian leadership made its retaliation: an extensive attack of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Cycle of Diplomacy and Destruction
The sequence of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the current period. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are issued from various governments. Immense energy is expended on restraining specific proposals. By night, the Kremlin clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the key method for achieving "peace".
Nighttime Reality
As the offensive unfolded into the early hours of Tuesday, the current condition of Ukraine's vulnerability was exposed. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a ability enabled by up-to-date information. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to engage hostile cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Soon thereafter, Kyiv's air-defence systems engaged: defensive missiles targeted at a hostile projectile. This was a sophisticated defense system at work, presumably provided by Western nations. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the approaching threat won't strike its target this time, sparing the city from catastrophe and further power outages.
Persistent Threats
Not long after, a automatic firearm opened up on a drone somewhere nearby, part of a mobile-fire group – most likely Western-made equipment. Sadly, the bullets missed the hostile drone – it maintained course toward its target.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the morning news: several casualties, destruction and heating outages in numerous residences as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As customarily, everyone still maintained normal activities – living the war. But those entire period illustrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a need that European nations are evidently unprepared to substitute in the immediate future.
Failed Diplomacy
The 28-point plan from US administration generated strong feelings, debate and deep concern – and momentarily shifted focus from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have witnessed similar scenarios, after earlier high-level meetings and international summits.
Every new proposal from US leadership unfolds according to the identical sequence: a political offensive against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually win the battle. This pattern will, undoubtedly, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is tempting to accuse specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the whole story. American leadership functions according to a premise understood by international relations experts: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The White House presumes that it is unfeasible to compel Moscow to abandon the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, US leadership does minimal to deter Moscow, through statements or actions, from thinking that the situation will not shift further in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that duration works to their advantage – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their incentive to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be numerous efforts to stop fighting, but they will carry on as long as Russia's leadership remains highly assured in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, slowly losing people and territory but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Current Realities
Factually, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are becoming relevant: political desires to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and Kyiv's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to mobilize citizens around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their priority does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Conclusion and Outlook
It took a only one week to eliminate the 28 points of the latest plan. Forceful and unpredictable management of the matter by American leadership, pushback by Ukraine and the remaining European nations, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new plans based on established approaches are approaching, Kyiv, London and other allied nations should reach an essential realization: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect specific hesitation to modify developments, if they stand together and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the foreseeable future, largely rely on sustained allied backing.
