A decade following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two respected commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Establishments Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have found that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unprepared for a potentially fraught and transformative public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can gain traction very quickly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains highly fragile."
Book Publication Seeks to Provoke Discussion
The duo have examined the political, economic and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What troubles everyone, or must worry every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you end up with an highly polarised community where the losing side are resistant to losing and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have won."
Legal Framework
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a referendum on Irish unification if it appears likely that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other nationalists claim that moment is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions minimise the possibility, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has gone on in universities but hardly any government figures or advocates are willing to participate with the fundamentals. As an example, what type of nation would you want? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the current situation. They writes two articles that strive for objectivity in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering financial and societal statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Discussions range over identity markers, taxes, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The aim is to educate and stimulate conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the notion that there may exist reasonable perspectives on each side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or implementing a different emblem to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"Authorities in Dublin should determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just saying: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a poor or a feckless official who says: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he commented. "One side will win in this matter and somebody will ultimately not succeed but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's arguments."
Appeal for More Extensive Discussion
Westminster should participate in the dialogue, stated the analyst. "This involves Britain. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish matter."
